Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Analysis Disclaimer


Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Forex: USD/JPY: Dollar picks up from 95.60 low and returns above 95.95


FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – Dollar weakness during Asian session has reached a fresh 5-weeks low at 95.60 to bounce up above 95.95 level. At the moment, the Dollar trades around 96.10, yet 0.70% below its day opening level.Next resistance level lies at 96.40/50, and above there, the Dollar might find resistance at 96.90 and then at the 97.25/45 area. On the downside, a bearish reversal could find support at 95.95 and below there, 95.60 fresh 5-week low and 95.40 (Mar 12 low).According to the Swiss e Trade Strategy Team, the Dollar does not seem to have a convincing potenntial either on the up or in the downside: “The dollar weakened further in this European morning and is currently priced at 95.90. We do not see that support being broken in today’s trading, but do not expect much upside potential, rather a narrow sideways movement in development.”

TopNews Team

Malini Ranade is working as a junior editor for Company News section on TopNews. Malini finished her Masters in Business Administration from Tilak Maharashtra Vidyapeeth. She joined TopNews as she had a desire to be a stocks editor. Malini always wanted to join TV News channel to become a business reporter. She remains in touch with many technical analysts for latest news about these sectors.
Neha Malik finished her Master of Arts in Mass Communication in year 2004 from Jamia Millia Islamia University, New Delhi. Neha has special interest in politics and manages politics section at TopNews.
Manpreet Dhillon has finished Master of Law in year 2006. Manpreet joined TopNews as he wanted to start a career in journalism. He has extensive knowledge of Business and Company Laws. Manpreet manages news about Law and Politics at TopNews.

An international network


With its doors and minds open to the world from the very outset, Pictet & Cie has established a presence in most of the world's leading financial market-places. Its head office is in Geneva, the cradle of private banking. In addition to Switzerland, Pictet & Cie also has three banks in Luxembourg, the Bahamas (Nassau) and Singapore, as well as nineteen representative offices throughout the world. Each of our clients is therefore able to open an account or accounts in the location that best suits his specific requirements.

Monday, April 27, 2009

kinds-of-forex


Spot Market. Currency spot trading is the most popular foreign currency instrument around theworld, making up 37 percent of the total activity (See Figure 3.1). The features of the fast-paced spotmarket are high volatility and quick profits (as well losses). A spot deal consists of a bilateral contract whereby a party delivers a specified amount of a givencurrency against receipt of a specified amount of another currency from a counterparty, based on an agreedexchange rate, within two business days of the deal date. The exception is the Canadian dollar, in whichthe spot delivery is executed next business day. The two-day spot delivery for currencies was developedlong before technological breakthroughs in information processing. This time period was necessary tocheck out all transactions' details among counterparties. Although technologically feasible, thecontemporary markets did not find it necessary to reduce the time to make payments. Human errors stilloccur and they need to be fixed before delivery. By the entering into a contract on the spot market a bank serving a trader tells the latter thequota – an evaluation of the currency traded against the U.S. dollar or an other currency.

Thursday, April 23, 2009


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Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Forex Update


The USD ends the first day of the week on a high note making gains against the majors with the exception of the Yen; analysts note that the USD/JPY is holding below the monthly opening range suggesting a technical correction is finally in play. USD/JPY high prints overnight at 99.42 failed to find stops said to be resting above the 99.50 area and weakness in Yen cross-spreads pressured the rate all day. Low prints in late New York at 97.64 cleared stops resting under the 98.00/10 area taking the CTA’s and black-box traders to the cleaners; the rate never managed a bounce of any significance suggesting that a test of the 50 day MA is now in play around the 97.20 area.

UPDATE: US March Leading Index Down 0.3%, More Than Expected


UPDATE: US March Leading Index Down 0.3%, More Than Expected (Updates with February's originally-reported drop, market expectations for March) NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The March index of leading index indicated a weaker economy ahead. The leading index declined 0.3%, after a revised 0.2% drop in February, the Conference Board reported Monday. February's drop was originally reported as 0.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a decline of 0.1% in the March index.

Monday, April 20, 2009

DailyFX+ Forex Market Conditions Outlook



Definitions
Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 30 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.
Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 30 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s monthly range.
Range High – 90-day closing high.
Range Low – 90-day closing low.
Last – Current market price.
Strategy – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.
The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliable, but of which we have not independently verified. FOREX CAPITAL MARKETS, L.L.C.® assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. FOREX CAPITAL MARKETS, L.L.C.® does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information, text, graphics, links or other items contained within these materials. FOREX CAPITAL MARKETS, L.L.C.® shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Breakout Boosts System Performance



A sharp US Dollar rally has left our forex trading signals in an attractive position to start the week’s trade, with Momentum and Breakout systems buying into positive USD momentum and sitting on respectable profits. As we discuss in our US Dollar weekly forecast, conditions remain ripe for a broader US Dollar and Japanese Yen recovery. As such, we remain bullish these key currencies and believe that trends will continue through near-term trade.
The risk remains that the US Dollar and Japanese Yen will subsequently retrace and remain in longer-standing ranges—forcing losses in our trend-following Momentum systems. Especially low volatility expectations highlight said risks, and our 1-week Volatility index currently trades at its lowest levels since September, 2008. We remain bullish the US Dollar but urge caution in gauging shifts in market dynamics.


Forex Trading Automated Systems Outlook
DailyFX+ System Trading Signals – Momentum2, Breakout2, and Range1 trading strategies remain as our top performers in the past 60 days of trade. We are nonetheless mindful that that Momentum2 and Breakout2 trades may underperform if currencies begin trading within wide ranges. The US Dollar breakout clearly bodes well for these key strategies, but there remains clear resistance in the way of further USD appreciation. Of note in the EUR/USD, the 1.2940 mark represents the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2430-1.3750 advance. If it drops below said level, a return to 1.2430 seems likely.


It will nonetheless be important to monitor US Dollar pairs through the near term and manage our trading biases accordingly. For the moment, we favor Momentum2 trading signals. Yet we remain mindful that low volatility will set up better range trading opportunities.

Forex: USD/CHF back to 1.1700 after reaching 1.1743, 4-weeks high

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - USD/CHF is back close to 1.1700 level after reaching a fresh 4-weeks high at 1.1743. Currently, the pair is trading around 1.1695/1.1705, 0.10% increases from today's opening price.According to Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com collaborator, bullish bias remains intact: "Bullish strength remains intact in the pair, and the pair is consolidating close to today’s high, moving since past Asian opening in a tight range. Above 1.1716 that continues to be today’s high, also a previous weekly high and the pair could continue dominant trend. Indicators turned flat due to last hours consolidation, no clear sign from there. Under 1.1645 zone, some selling pressure could be seen."

Brazil Govt Oks BRL4 Bln Credit For States To Face Slowdown

Brazil Govt Oks BRL4 Bln Credit For States To Face Slowdown BRASILIA (Dow Jones)--Brazil's National Monetary Council in an extraordinary meeting late Friday approved 4 billion reals ($1.83 billion) in credit for state governments, the central bank said Monday. The loans, to be extended by the country's BNDES national development bank, will carry an interest charge of Brazil's TJLP long-term interest rate plus 3% annually. The TJLP interest rate is currently set at 6.25% annually. The loans come with a repayment period of eight years following a one-year grace period. According to the government, the loan funds must be used for investments and cannot be applied toward current spending. The extension of the loan funding for states comes following the approval of BRL1 billion in federal loans for cities last week. Brazil's states and cities have seen a decline in tax revenue over recent months following a deceleration of the country's economy. The National Monetary Council is Brazil's highest ranking economic decision-making body. -By Gerald Jeffris, Dow Jones Newswires; (5561) 3335-0832, gerald.jeffris@dowjones.com Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=MnB3XRVmzONaVN%2BYqC6tLw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.